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Rogue Amoeba
Thu, 08 Jun 2006

Just under a month ago we released our very first Windows product, Airfoil for Windows, and it's doing well. We received a lot of interest relating to our decision to develop for Windows, ranging from a desire to hear our thoughts on developing to questions on sales numbers and comparisons between the Mac and Windows worlds. In this article, I'll be speaking about the marketing and sales end of the experience of expanding from the Mac to Windows. First though, in the great American tradition, a disclaimer:

Disclaimer: We're just one Mac shop, who's ported one application to Windows. Your mileage will vary. Airfoil For Windows (henceforth, Winfoil) isn't yet a 1.0 (it's a public beta), which no doubt kept some users away. In additional, Winfoil does not have feature parity with Airfoil for Mac (henceforth, Macfoil). Finally, to purchase Winfoil users must download it, while Macfoil can be purchased through our store directly. How these facts affect things is simply not known.

Marketing On Windows
Marketing MegaphoneRogue Amoeba has been marketing on the Mac platform since 2002, and we've all worked on the Mac for years before. We've got a good bit of experience as far as getting new applications seen by Mac users, in addition to a powerful list of contacts in the Mac press. As this point, submitting our software to a couple of key download sites and sending out some press releases takes us a long way.

Not so on the Windows side, however. We were featured on many of the usual suspects, sites like Digg and Engadget, and we got plenty of traffic on the day of release. However, there simply doesn't seem to be the hive mind on the Windows side that exists on the Mac platform, especially not with regards to the news sites. The Mac world has a half dozen or so news sites that a huge number (and a huge percentage) of Mac users read frequently. Maybe it's the fact that in world that's 95% Windows users, "Windows-specific" news doesn't really make sense, or maybe Windows users are just less interested in new sofware for their machines. Whatever the reason, Windows users simply don't have the same types of news sites we do on the Mac side.

Because of this, reaching Windows users is a different game entirely, and we're just getting our feet wet here. In the future, we'll hopefully have more to report. For now, the essential thing to know is that marketing to Windows users is a very different beast.

Windows Doesn't Mean Instant Success
Big YachtSee this yacht? Pretty nice, eh? It's the Blue Moon, selling for approximately $41.5 million dollars. Jealous? Don't be - we didn't buy it. If we were boat shopping, we wouldn't exactly be stuck with this either, but Winfoil simply wasn't the instant hit that the Mac version was.

There are a lot of important factors here. We didn't pre-announce Winfoil (as we did with Macfoil) so we didn't have users (virtually) lined up ready to buy. The Public Beta status no doubt scared off some users. Winfoil also works solely with Apple hardware (the AirPort Express), which is certain to be less popular than on the Mac side. Finally, as noted above, marketing on Windows is new for us, so our message hasn't been heard nearly as well just yet.

Even with all those mitigating factors, I'd still say it's at least somewhat useful to know that on the day of our Windows release, we didn't rush out to buy yachts. We saw good response, and decent sales, but it wasn't as simple as:

Step 1) Develop a Windows version of a successful Mac product
Step 2) Release
Step 3) Go to sleep on a pile of money.

Conversion Rates Aren't What You'd Expect
ConversionsThe popular theory is that Mac users are more likely to purchase software than Windows users. In the face of its rather woeful market share, this idea makes developing for the Mac a lot more logical. If, for example, Mac users are twice as likely to purchase a particular application, then Apple's 5% market share is equivalent to 10% of Windows' market share.

So how did it actually work out? We keep our sales data close to the vest, so instead, let's have some fun with algebra. In the first 20 days after its release, Winfoil was downloaded X times. In that same time period, Macfoil was downloaded 2.2X. Meanwhile, Winfoil was purchased Y times, and Macfoil was purchased 2.0Y times. Yes, that's right, Winfoil's conversion rate from download to sale was actually higher than Macfoil. Macfoil's conversion rate was ~4.9% while Winfoil's was ~5.4%. Put another way, for every 100 Macfoil downloads, we saw 4.9 sales. For every 100 Winfoil downloads we saw 5.4 sales.

 WinfoilMacfoil
Downloads:X2.2X
Sales:Y2.0Y
Conversion Rate:~5.4%~4.9%

Winfoil vs. Macfoil Data

The margin of error inherent in our sample size means this works out to a tie. But seeing that Macfoil didn't out-convert Winfoil ten to one, or even two to one, these results contradict popular wisdom and our initial assumptions.

Conclusion
We're less than a month in to our experience in the Windows world, but we've already learned a lot. In the future we hope to have more to share, including more data on conversion rates as well as tips for marketing to the Windows world.

Posted by Paul | Permalink | View/Post Comments (16)

Comments


Steve-o
Thu Jun 8 14:30:49 2006

Wouldn't it be more fair to compare the first 20 days of the Windows release to the first 20 days of the Mac release, as opposed to comparing the same 20-day period?  Since the Mac version's been out a while, you're getting your Mac download numbers from "stragglers" who may or may not be as enthused to buy after trying (e.g. convert), or to do so as quickly as people that were checking it out right out of the gate...

Matt
Thu Jun 8 15:17:36 2006

My path to Macfoil was:
iPod->
iTunes->
Bizarrely simple wireless routing of my music from iTunes to Airport Express->
'Why can't I do this with other music sources'->
Airfoil

So, I'd think that iPod websites would make a good marketing connection. No?

Simone Manganelli
Thu Jun 8 16:25:43 2006

Agreed with steve-o.  While the results are interesting, to make it more fair you'd need to compare the "conversion rate" when Macfoil was initially released, not during the same period when Winfoil was released.  There's quite likely a trend in conversion rate through time, so the comparison here is unclear.

Of course, since you said that Windows marketing is a whole different ballgame, comparing the conversion rate of Macfoil when it was released to Winfoil when it was released isn't necessarily a fair comparison either.  But I think it's at least a fairER comparison.

-- Simone

Paul
Thu Jun 8 16:55:27 2006

Steve-o: I don't think we're getting "stragglers" right now, nor is it at all easy to determine when that point has been reached. Plenty of people are buying their first AirPort Express today,a nd plenty more have yet to hear of Airfoil.

While such a comparison would -also- be interesting, I don't think it's any more or less fair. There would simply be different factors skewing the numbers. The real reason why we won't do such a comparison, however, is that those numbers are long gone. 8)

Matt: That's an interesting thought. But the iPod isn't the same as the AirPort Express, obviously. It's not a bad idea, but there are plenty of iPod users (most iPod users, in fact) who don't have an AirPort Express. The fact that we now have a Mac and a Windows version does open up lots of new advertising possibilities though.

One other thing to note is that that's advertising, which is only part of the larger task of "marketing" (specifically, it's the expensive part).

Simone: As noted above, we unfortunattely don't have those data anymore. Even if we did calling it a "fairer" comparison isn't accurate. It's simply a -different- comparison, as Macfoil was pre-announced and had people waiting for it. The conversion rate for those users was no doubt higher than average. Perhaps the PC side saw similar effects, but I don't think it was to the same extent. The real test will be how Winfoil's conversion rate fares over the next few months, something we'll publish in the future.

Quentin
Thu Jun 8 17:35:22 2006

I think the fairest comparison would be during the "downtime" between releases. Releases are exceptional things, while the inbetween times are steady and predictable. But we'll have to wait longer before we have those kind of numbers for Winfoil.

Nick
Thu Jun 8 17:46:37 2006

Do you have a way to tell the difference between people redownloading MacFoil vs downloading for the first time? Because that to me seems like it will obviously reduce the conversion rate number. I know for software that I own I'll download it several times due to hard drive failures or stuff like that.

Sakkawa
Thu Jun 8 19:24:10 2006

Another queston is, of course, how many of the windows version is downloaded by Mac-users running Windows?
If I spent any time in Boot-Camp I know I'd miss Macfoil, and thus Winfoil is the obvious (and only?) alternative.

Paul
Thu Jun 8 20:00:09 2006

Nick: No, we don't. And while re-downloads are sure to occur, I don't think it's statistically significant. As Quentin notes, the best test is during a long period of downtime, where redownloads would likely be similar.

Sakkawa: I'm sure there are some, but I doubt it's many. As well, the applications require unique licenses, so each one would require a sale. I don't imagine this is statistically significant either.

scratch
Fri Jun 9 01:28:40 2006

Airfoil, Winfoil, Macfoil. If I run it on my TiBook, can I call it Tinfoil?

Quentin
Fri Jun 9 03:01:28 2006

Tinfoil would be the original Metal design of Airfoil 2: http://rogueamoeba.com/airfoil/mac/images/airfoil2-development.png

Daniel
Fri Jun 9 11:23:29 2006

Steve-o has a valid point and you data may not be as valid as you think. The subtle but material difference that effects buyer behavior is the same reason Wall Street analysts separate retail results of stores open more than a year from newly opened stores. The underlying drivers are complex and probably endlessly debateable, but empirically they boil down to the fact that buyer behavior is not linear over different time periods during retail brand and channel establishment. While that doesn't disprove your results, it strongly suggests you should use caution in extrapolating them over a longer period. I'd be more convinced if the relative difference are still there in 2 or 4 quarters.

Paul
Fri Jun 9 11:37:47 2006

Daniel: This is pretty much what we said, both in the article and in the comments. I don't think that changes the only conclusion we made, namely:

"But seeing that Macfoil didn't out-convert Winfoil ten to one, or even two to one, these results contradict popular wisdom and our initial assumptions."

The data are far too lossy to make any extrapolations at all - we're certainly not making any business decisions around it. Nonetheless, I still think it's interesting.

Mike Abdullah
Sat Jun 10 16:45:10 2006

What I think would be really cool is if you guys starting selling a developer framework to allow easy addition of routing audio to Airport Express.

Of course though, Apple really should have done this a while.

Also, out of interest, what is you guys relationship with Apple.  I mean, say Apple release an update to the Airport Express that stops it working with Airfoil.  Can you get any information on this, or do you have to figure out for yourselves?

Quentin
Sat Jun 10 17:35:14 2006

Mike - We're on our own here. But that is not as bad as it may first appear.

Airfoil helps sell Airport Expreses, and Macfoil does not hurt them in any way that I can imagine. So there is little reason to target it.

As well, the APX has actually undergone protocol upgrades (specifically the last firmware upgrade), but always so far has maintained backwards compatibility modes for versions of iTunes that speak the older protocols.

Some of the latest protocol changes (for syncing) we have yet to understand, as they are Apple-invented additions to the RTCP/RDP standard. And at this point it seems unlikely that Apple is going to tell us what exactly they are.

Brenden
Tue Jun 13 10:16:52 2006

Your point about Windows software sites is mostly accurate, but I would argue that BetaNews (http://www.betanews.com/) serves this function on Windows with a fairly sizable audience.

Mike Abdullah
Wed Jun 14 18:25:08 2006

Thanks for the answer Quentin.  Any comments on the idea of a developer framework? :)


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